|Talks|

Characterizing and anticipating spatial-temporal patterns. A mathematical modeling approach focused on dynamical systems emerging in epidemiology.

Dissertation proposal
Hybrid
Past Talk
Raul Garrido Garcia
Northeastern Physics Department, Network Science Institute
Apr 30, 2025
10:00 am
Apr 30, 2025
10:00 am
In-person
4 Thomas More St
London E1W 1YW, UK
The Roux Institute
Room
100 Fore Street
Portland, ME 04101
Network Science Institute
2nd floor
Network Science Institute
11th floor
177 Huntington Ave
Boston, MA 02115
Network Science Institute
2nd floor
Conference Rm 427, 4th Floor
Room
58 St Katharine's Way
London E1W 1LP, UK

Talk recording

As respiratory diseases continue to impact millions of individuals annually, mathematical models are frequently employed to characterize the seasonal dynamics of such outbreaks. However, these models often fall short in providing early detection of outbreak onset and peak, and are inherently affected by real-world sources of uncertainty. In this work, I first introduce an Early Warning System (EWS) designed to anticipate the onset and peak of respiratory outbreaks by aggregating diverse proxy signals, including Google search trends and Influenza Like Illness (ILI) data from neighboring regions. I propose extending this system through disease-specific transfer learning to enhance its adaptability across different respiratory illnesses. Second, I address the statistical challenge of uncertainty quantification in epidemic modeling by embedding SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) dynamics within a Bayesian inference framework. Using synthetic data and controlled experimental settings, I demonstrate how factors such as observational noise, data availability, and model complexity affect the posterior uncertainty and reliability of parameter estimates. As a next step, I propose applying this inference pipeline to real-world epidemiological data to evaluate its performance under more realistic conditions. Finally, I outline future research directions involving the application of neural networks to other complex domains, such as modeling black hole dynamics or using retinal imaging data for early cancer detection.

About the speaker
Raúl is a third year Physics PhD candidate working with Professor Mauricio Santillana. He is interested in the application of physics and mathematical modeling in the study of epidemics and human behavior. Prior to joining NetSI, he received a B.S. in Physics and a minor in Applied Mathematics from Purdue University Northwest.
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Apr 30, 2025