Estimating the potential risk of transmission of arboviruses in the Americas and Europe: a modelling study

Agnese Zardini, Francesco Menegale, Andrea Gobbi, Mattia Manica, Giorgio Guzzetta, Valeria d'Andrea, Valentina Marziano, Filippo Trentini, Fabrizio Montarsi, Beniamino Caputo, Angelo Solimini, Cecilia Marques-Toledo, André B B Wilke, Roberto Rosà, Giovanni Marini, Daniele Arnoldi, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Andrea Pugliese, Gioia Capelli, Alessandra della Torre, Mauro M Teixeira, John C Beier, Annapaola Rizzoli, Alessandro Vespignani, Marco Ajelli
The Lancet Planetary Health
VOLUME 8, ISSUE 1, E30-E40
January 1, 2024

Abstract

Estimates of the spatiotemporal distribution of different mosquito vector species and the associated risk of transmission of arboviruses are key to design adequate policies for preventing local outbreaks and reducing the number of human infections in endemic areas. In this study, we quantified the abundance of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti and the local transmission potential for three arboviral infections at an unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution in areas where no entomological surveillance is available.

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