Network epidemiology

modeling spread of disease and risky behaviors through populations

This work focuses on modeling disease spread, contagion and diffusion processes across social and technical spaces in living systems. The goal is to develop mechanistically realistic predictive models of human disease and mobility at the meta-population level. Models are used to forecast spreading of infectious agents to determine risk threat such as thresholds of disease, containment strategies, and effectiveness of targeted interventions. Results from these projects are reported to the WHO and CDC who use our recommendations to set protocols and policies.

Featured publications

Tracking COVID-19 Infections Using Survey Data on Rapid At-Home Tests

Mauricio Santillana, Ata A. Uslu, Tamanna Urmi, Alexi Quintana-Mathe, James N. Druckman, Katherine Ognyanova, Matthew Baum, Roy H. Perlis David Lazer
JAMA Network Open
September 30, 2024

Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021–22 and 2022–23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations

Posner, Amanda C. Perofsky, Cécile Viboud, Leonardo Clemente, Fred Lu, Austin G. Meyer, Mauricio Santillana, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Xinyue Xiong, Michal Ben-Nun, Pete Riley, James Turtle, Chis Hulme-Lowe, Shakeel, et al
Nature Communications
July 26, 2024

Social media sensors as early signals of influenza outbreaks at scale

David Martín-Corral, Manuel García-Herranz, Manuel Cebrian, Esteban Moro
EPJ Data Science
June 17, 2024

Recent publications

Comparative Evaluation of Behavioral-Epidemic Models Using COVID-19 Data

Nicolò Gozzi, Nicola Perra, Alessandro Vespignani
medRxiv
November 10, 2024

Prevalence and Correlates of Long COVID Symptoms Among US Adults

Roy H. Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Katherine Ognyanova, et al
JAMA Network
October 27, 2024

Ensemble Approaches for Robust and Generalizable Short-Term Forecasts of Dengue Fever. A retrospective and prospective evaluation study in over 180 locations around the world

Skyler Wu, Austin Meyer, Leonardo Clemente, Lucas M. Stolerman, Fred Lu, Atreyee Majumder, Rudi Verbeeck, Serge Masyn, Mauricio Santillana
medRxiv
October 23, 2024

Racial disparities in Phase 1 COVID-19 vaccine shipments to Neighborhood sites in Pennsylvania by the Federal Retail Pharmacy Program

Geoffrey S. Holtzman, Yukun Yang, Pierce Louis, Stephen G. West, Piranavakumar Kandaswamy
Nature Scientific Reports
October 10, 2024

Tracking COVID-19 Infections Using Survey Data on Rapid At-Home Tests

Mauricio Santillana, Ata A. Uslu, Tamanna Urmi, Alexi Quintana-Mathe, James N. Druckman, Katherine Ognyanova, Matthew Baum, Roy H. Perlis David Lazer
JAMA Network Open
September 30, 2024
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Featured news coverage

Featured project

The Global Epidemic and mobility (GLEAM) project has developed new computational techniques and software for the simulation of emerging infectious diseases spreading across the world. The team uses a network approach to map complex human mobility patterns that account for social interaction behaviors, travel patterns (eg, commuting routes), and transportation infrastructures (eg, metro and airline connections). The simulation interface provides a dynamic visualization of spatial contagion across geographical census areas, and quantitatively evaluates the geo-temporal evolution of the disease.

Major funders

NIH/Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research, IARPA, Metabiota, WHO, CDC, ISI Foundation