Network epidemiology

modeling spread of disease and risky behaviors through populations

This work focuses on modeling disease spread, contagion and diffusion processes across social and technical spaces in living systems. The goal is to develop mechanistically realistic predictive models of human disease and mobility at the meta-population level. Models are used to forecast spreading of infectious agents to determine risk threat such as thresholds of disease, containment strategies, and effectiveness of targeted interventions. Results from these projects are reported to the WHO and CDC who use our recommendations to set protocols and policies.

Featured publications

Transmission heterogeneities, kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-2

Kaiyuan Sun, Wei Wang, Lidong Gao, Yan Wang, Kaiwei Luo, Lingshuang Ren, Zhifei Zhan, Xinghui Chen, Shanlu Zhao, Yiwei Huang, Qianlai Sun, Ziyan Liu, Maria Litvinova, Alessandro Vespignani, Marco Ajelli, Cécile Viboud, Hongjie Yu
Science
November 24, 2020

Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability

Flávio C. Coelho, Raquel M. Lana, Oswaldo G. Cruz,Daniel A. M. Villela, Leonardo S. Bastos, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Jessica T. Davis, Alessandro Vespignani, Claudia T. Codeço, Marcelo F. C. Gomes
PLOS ONE
September 18, 2020

Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19

Alberto Aleta, David Martín-Corral, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Marco Ajelli, Maria Litvinova, Matteo Chinazzi, Natalie E. Dean, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini Jr, Stefano Merler, Alex Pentland, Alessandro Vespignani, Esteban Moro & Yamir Moreno
Nature Human Behaviour
August 5, 2020

Recent publications

Transmission heterogeneities, kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-2

Kaiyuan Sun, Wei Wang, Lidong Gao, Yan Wang, Kaiwei Luo, Lingshuang Ren, Zhifei Zhan, Xinghui Chen, Shanlu Zhao, Yiwei Huang, Qianlai Sun, Ziyan Liu, Maria Litvinova, Alessandro Vespignani, Marco Ajelli, Cécile Viboud, Hongjie Yu
Science
November 24, 2020

Beyond R0: heterogeneity in secondary infections and probabilistic epidemic forecasting

Laurent Hébert-Dufresne, Benjamin M. Althouse, Samuel V. Scarpino and Antoine Allard
Journal of the Royal Society
November 4, 2020

Estimating the effect of social inequalities in the mitigation of COVID-19 across communities in Santiago de Chile

Nicolò Gozzi, Michele Tizzoni, Matteo Chinazzi, Leo Ferres, Alessandro Vespignani, Nicola Perra
medRxiv
October 13, 2020

Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability

Flávio C. Coelho, Raquel M. Lana, Oswaldo G. Cruz,Daniel A. M. Villela, Leonardo S. Bastos, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Jessica T. Davis, Alessandro Vespignani, Claudia T. Codeço, Marcelo F. C. Gomes
PLOS ONE
September 18, 2020
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Featured news coverage

Featured project

The Global Epidemic and mobility (GLEAM) project has developed new computational techniques and software for the simulation of emerging infectious diseases spreading across the world. The team uses a network approach to map complex human mobility patterns that account for social interaction behaviors, travel patterns (eg, commuting routes), and transportation infrastructures (eg, metro and airline connections). The simulation interface provides a dynamic visualization of spatial contagion across geographical census areas, and quantitatively evaluates the geo-temporal evolution of the disease.

Major funders

NIH/Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research, IARPA, Metabiota, WHO, CDC, ISI Foundation