Unveiling individual and collective temporal patterns in the tanker shipping network

Kevin Teo, Naomi Arnold, Andrew Hone, Michael Coulon, Martin Ireland, Mauricio Santillana, István Zoltán Kiss
Nature Communications
February 27, 2026

The global oil tanker shipping network emerges from individual ship and fleet decisions driven by economic, environmental, and operational factors. However, most existing shipping network analysis rely on static, time-aggregated representations, overlooking critical temporality connecting individual vessel routing strategies with both operational efficiency and global cargo flows. To address this gap, we introduce a dual-scale framework complementing sequential motif analysis—capturing recurrent patterns in vessel movement sequences—with Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD), extracting temporal dynamics from vessel trajectories to global cargo flows. Using tanker movement data across four vessel classes, we demonstrate that vessels exhibiting diverse regional exploration patterns spend up to 50% more time transporting rather than seeking cargo, indicating greater economic and environmental efficiency. At the system scale, DMD analysis reveals distinct seasonality with an average peak-to-trough amplitude of 16%. Major import regions show synchronous annual demand cycles, while export regions exhibit anti-synchronicity. These temporal patterns, invisible to static analysis, reveal performance differences that enable route optimization for both economic and environmental benefits.

Related publications