Continuity and Change in Trust in Scientists in the United States: Demographic Stability and Partisan Polarization

Americans’ trust in scientists has been stable and high, relative to other political and social institutions, for the last half century (Krause et al. 2019). Yet, underlying this stability lies a dramatic change such that a partisan gap emerged, with Democrats exhibiting substantially more trust than Republicans. Fifty years ago, Republicans in fact exhibited more relative trust in scientists. This article explains this continuity and change. First, we demonstrate that the demographic correlates of trust in scientists have been remarkably stable for more than a half century: women, Black, rural, religious, non-college educated, and lower/working class individuals exhibit less trust than their counterparts. Second, we show the partisan relationship with trust in scientists flipped (over that same time period) as low-trusting demographic strata shifted partisan allegiances. This is particularly the case when it comes to education and religiosity. Concomitant with the emergent partisan gap is a massive perceptual gap among Democrats, who perceive a partisan divide more than double its actual size. Democrats vastly underestimate Republicans’ trust in scientists. The enduring demographic basis of trust in scientists provides an opportunity to bridge partisan divides by addressing demographic inequities in the practice and application of science.