How politics affect pandemic forecasting: spatio-temporal early warning capabilities of different geo-social media topics in the context of state-level political leaning

Dorian Arifi, Bernd Resch, Mauricio Santillana, Steffen Knoblauch, Sven Lautenbach, Thomas Jaenisch, Ivonne Morales
Frontiers in Public Health
Volume 13 - 2025
June 30, 2025

Due to political polarization, adherence to public health measures varied across US states during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although social media posts have been shown effective in anticipating COVID-19 surges, the impact of political leaning on the effectiveness of different topics for early warning remains mostly unexplored. Our study examines the spatio-temporal early warning potential of different geo-social media topics across republican, democrat, and swing states.

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