Coronaviras Outbreak: Up-to-date assessment of international spreading risk of 2019-nCoV
A team of scientists led by NetSI's Director Alessandro Vespignani is providing models to estimate the actual size of the Wuhan outbreak and the risk of global spread of 2019-nCoV infections. Assessments are generated from a complex model that integrates multiple layers of information and timescales, including known cases of 2019-nCoV infections detected outside China, simulations of individual travel patterns from over 3,200 census areas and 190 different countries, detailed data on flight routes and schedules, and any known properties of the coronavirus.
The team includes Vespignani’s MOBS Lab (Matteo Chinazzi, Ana Pastore y Piontti, and doctoral students, Xinyue Xiong and Jessica Davis), along with researchers from the ISI Foundation, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Florida.
Their report will be updated regularly as new information becomes available: https://www.mobs-lab.org/2019ncov.html.